Will mortgage interest rates drop? Why you shouldn't take out a mortgage. Economic factors that may affect the percentage

According to analysts and experts, mortgage rates are expected to continue to decline in 2019. Based on the latest news on this topic, a significant slowdown in inflation led to a gradual reduction in the base rate, which means it made lending a more accessible resource.

An additional factor that positively influenced the stabilization of the credit sector in the economy was the provision of on-lending opportunities. Today's borrowers are actively trying to renew their loan at lower interest rates and thereby reduce the payment amount. Our article will focus on the latest information regarding when the mortgage rate decreased and what future prospects await potential borrowers or people who have already used this service.

According to the head of AHML A. Plutnik, in 2019 mortgage lending will become much more accessible to Russians. The average interest rate in this case can be up to 10%, which will significantly increase the attractiveness of housing lending.

Already at the end of last year, the rate reached pre-crisis levels, but this became possible thanks to the participation of the state. About 30% of all existing loans were issued with the participation of federal funds and within the framework of existing state programs. According to such programs, the maximum possible level of interest rate on a loan can be up to 12% per annum, but no more. According to the terms of the new programs, government support will not be required in the future. This is due to the establishment of reduced key mortgage rates, as well as the determination of real lending volumes. The current situation suggests a revival in demand for housing loans, especially given the growth in household incomes.

Economic factors that may affect the percentage

The Russian economy has quite successfully overcome the crisis situation, and now this allows us to note a significant improvement in macroeconomic indicators. In general, there is a significant slowdown in inflation, which could reach 4% this year. It was this indicator that influenced the formation of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation rate, which amounted to 9.25% in April last year.

In addition to these points, two more economic indicators have a significant impact on the mortgage rate. On the one hand, positive dynamics are observed due to the strengthening of the ruble, and on the other, with rising oil prices. Today, the cost of “black gold” allows us to replenish the federal budget, and therefore increase the amount of social support for the population in matters of housing lending.

What mortgage rate is expected in 2019

According to experts, further improvement in economic indicators could be a serious reason for reducing the key rate to 6-7%. Only new problems and difficulties in the country’s economic life, as well as political nuances, can change this trend.

This situation is unlikely to occur, so the cost of housing loans will be significantly reduced, which, in turn, will cause an increase in demand for banking products from the population. Thanks to this opportunity, mortgage volumes will quickly reach pre-crisis levels even without government participation. In addition to reducing the actual cost of loans and increasing income, psychological factors will play an important role.

Consumers will pay much more attention to existing credit offers, which, in turn, will lead to an increase in lending volumes within the framework of providing mortgages.

Possible risks associated with rate cuts in 2019

Despite the fact that the forecasts are very optimistic, experts report that one should not rejoice ahead of time and expect a decrease in mortgage rates. The fact is that due to a fall in mortgage interest rates, a so-called “bubble” effect may occur in the real estate market, which will lead to another mortgage crisis.

To eliminate the possibility of such a situation developing, it is necessary to carefully check and analyze the data, and also try to predict the possible consequences for borrowers and the market. Among other things, experts do not exclude the possibility of the introduction of disinformation against the backdrop of the presidential elections in the Russian Federation, since so far the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has not taken any action regarding the current rate.

Experienced analysts predict a possible decrease in the mortgage rate to 8.5% in 2019, followed by an increase in demand for housing loans from the population. This assumption is more realistic because it is based on the circumstances of the actual situation. However, it may well turn out that the housing lending rate will remain unchanged, at the same level.

Conclusion

In conclusion, it should be noted that such forecasts will allow citizens planning to get a mortgage to draw up their action plan and, possibly, postpone contacting the bank in order to take advantage of new, preferential conditions in the future and receive a loan at a lower interest rate.

In June, banks issued mortgages at an average rate of 11.1% - this is the minimum in the entire history of monitoring monthly rates, that is, since January 2009, according to the Central Bank's materials. The drop in rates was due to a decrease in inflation, the key rate of the Central Bank and the pricing policy of state banks, which have reduced the cost of housing loans several times in recent months. Due to a record reduction in rates, summer became the peak of mortgage refinancing, interviewed bankers told Izvestia. The population actively improved the conditions for loans taken in 2014–2015, when average rates were significantly higher. By the end of the year, home loan rates could fall to single digits.

The regulator has been monitoring changes in mortgage rates on a monthly basis since the beginning of 2009, when they were at the level of 14.35%. Bank rates are made up of the Central Bank key rate (currently at 9%), the cost of raising funds for the bank itself and its risk. The lower the Central Bank rate, the cheaper the mortgage. The key rate, in turn, depends on inflation, which has slowed threefold - from 12.9% in 2015 to 3.9% this year. This also creates serious preconditions for a fall in mortgage rates.

Their decrease from 12.94% as of July 1 last year to 11.1% at the beginning of the same month in 2017 occurred in the absence of a state program for subsidizing mortgages and is solely a reflection of the improving economic situation in the country and the competition of banks in the fight for clients. As a result, all market participants were able to significantly increase the issuance of housing loans, which, according to the Central Bank, grew by 5.2% over seven months and became the fastest growing type of lending in the country. Thus, DeltaCredit increased its issuance by 40%, Sberbank - by 48%.

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Now the real estate and mortgage market has returned to pre-crisis levels: demand and affordability of housing are being restored, mortgage rates are systematically decreasing, non-price conditions for obtaining mortgage loans are improving,” Nikolai Vasev, director of the DomClick division of Sberbank, said about the current situation.

The competitive situation is also an important factor in reducing rates and increasing lending, added Elena Mikailova, head of the mortgage product development department at B&N Bank.

The main driver is high interbank competition in the market. The level of rate reduction is set by state banks,” she said.

In early August, Sberbank reduced mortgage rates by 0.6–2 percentage points to 7.4–10% per annum; VTB in the summer reduced rates to 9.5–10%.

VTB24 and the retail business of VTB Bank have already improved the conditions on their mortgage loans three times since the beginning of this year. Now a loan for the purchase of finished housing can be obtained at a rate of 9.5%, new buildings - from 9.7%. Mortgage rates in our country are at historic lows. We expect them to decline further, but not at such a rapid pace,” predicts Andrey Osipov, Senior Vice President, Director of the Mortgage Lending Department at VTB24.

The reduction of rates by the main market participants forced other banks to reconsider their tariff policy.

After an unprecedented reduction by Sberbank, other credit institutions also had to reconsider their rates. However, if Sberbank, with its cheap base of liabilities, has the opportunity for such a reduction, then commercial banks in the near future will have to sell mortgages actually at a loss, explained a banker from the top 30 credit institutions, who wished to remain anonymous.

According to financier forecasts, rates may decline further by the end of the year. They will also be influenced by the pricing policy of Sberbank, which occupies half of the market.

We predict a decrease in interest rates by 1–2% by the end of the year,” estimated Andrey Tocheny, director for development of lending programs at Svyaz-Bank.

As a result, the average rate may reach single digits, Alexey Tartyshev, head of the marketing department of the DeltaCredit mortgage bank, did not rule out.

A noticeable reduction in rates has already led to the fact that a significant part of new loans is taken out to refinance old ones. The volume of such transactions in the first half of the year amounted to about 35 billion rubles, or 4.5% of the entire mortgage market. Bankers expect that demand for refinancing will peak in the fall. The procedure for refinancing a mortgage loan is completely free for clients and is almost no different from applying for a regular mortgage.

Mortgage in 2018 should develop at an even faster pace than last year, housing market experts are convinced. Today there are several serious prerequisites for this. The 2017 results for the volume of mortgage loans issued are also encouraging. And not only for people with good incomes. The most logical question - is it worth taking out a mortgage in 2018 - is answered by the FederalPress material.

Last year, the total amount of mortgage loans issued exceeded 2,000 billion rubles, an increase of 36% compared to 2016, they said at the IV Russian Mortgage Congress, held recently in Moscow. The popularity of mortgages was added by the fact that the mortgage rate dropped below the psychological level of 10%, and financial and credit institutions issued about 87 thousand loans for a total of 156 billion rubles for refinancing.

According to financial estimates, the volume of the mortgage lending market will continue to grow in 2018. This trend is typical this year both for the Urals in particular and for the entire country as a whole, financial sector experts believe, based on the dynamics of the mortgage market in 2016-2017.

Thus, in 2017, the mortgage lending market in the Sverdlovsk, Chelyabinsk, Kurgan regions and the Republic of Bashkortostan increased by more than 40% compared to 2016. The significant growth of the mortgage lending market in the Sverdlovsk region was due to a significant increase in the volume of loans issued for the purchase of housing in new buildings - in 2017 it grew by 43%. For comparison, on average in Russia the similar segment grew by only 16%.

The active development of mortgages is influenced by several key factors - a decrease in interest rates on loans, the development of special programs from banks and developers, as well as government subsidies. An example of the latter is the launch of the “Mortgage with state support for families with children” program, which provides an interest rate of 6% for the final borrower.

″ Experts also note the general liberalization of requirements for borrowers and the cost of loans (reducing lending rates and the minimum down payment), an increase in the refinancing of mortgage loans from other banks and the development of programs with developers to subsidize interest rates.

“Today, banks offer many programs with rates of 6% and above. To be more specific, for the most part, rates in use now range from 9% to 10%. Again, the launch in 2018 by the Russian government of the Family Mortgage program with state subsidies provides new opportunities for young families with children, which is generally positive progress in the field of mortgage lending in the primary market. It is expected that this program will become a driver this year,” the head of the mortgage lending department at Glavstroy commented on the situation. Evgeny Kuznetsov. - As such, there are no difficulties with obtaining and applying for a mortgage; everything is quite easy and understandable. In general, it can be noted that the state is trying in every possible way to make it more attractive to purchase apartments on the primary market using mortgage loans.”

Independent experts believe that it is worth taking out a mortgage right now - after all, the price of the apartments themselves has decreased. And this happened not only because of the crisis, but also thanks to the development of the industry.

“It is expected that construction prices will decrease by 10% until 2020, that is, they will decrease by 30%. And this is normal, this is correct, because new technologies are emerging, new technologies for laying pits, new laying foundations, erecting walls,” noted the director of the Institute of Industry Management (IOM) RANEPA, dean of the Faculty of Real Estate Economics IOM RANEPA in a conversation with our correspondent Elena Ivankina. “In fact, if construction takes into account all the requirements for design, construction time, and energy efficiency, because we need to reduce the energy consumption of each built house by at least 10 times, then the results will be much better than now.”

“Banks are also trying to further spur mortgage demand,” says the head of the analytical center of Rusipoteka LLC. Sergey Gordeyko. - Financial institutions are actively introducing digital mortgages for both clients and partners. Electronic registration of transactions and remote identification of clients will develop very quickly.”

Indeed, for example, Sber is introducing the submission of documents to register a home purchase transaction in Rosreestr directly through the offices of partner companies. “You can submit documents in 15 minutes, and within five to seven days all participants in the transaction receive registered documents by email. Previously, the procedure for preparing, collecting, submitting and registering documents for primary housing through Rosreestr or the MFC took on average up to 30 days,” we were told at the press center of the Ural Bank of Sberbank of Russia.

In the primary market, almost half of all transactions are carried out with a mortgage loan, experts say. In turn, almost 30% of issued mortgage loans are for the purchase of new buildings. In the secondary market, the share of loan transactions increased to 35%. According to forecasts, this segment will develop throughout the year. At the same time, all leading lenders have successfully mastered refinancing.

“The share of refinancing in annual sales is close to 8%. As a result, about 87 thousand borrowers changed one lender to another. As a reward for this shift, they received new loans at a lower rate in the amount of about 156 billion rubles, and the old loans were repaid ahead of schedule. In 2018, the share of refinancing will increase to 15% of sales volume and will begin to decline in the fall. In 2017, banks refinanced other people's borrowers. The Central Bank is trying to change this trend so that they can refinance their own more actively,” says Sergei Gordeiko.

″ Analysts predict further rate cuts, predicting low inflation. The interest rate is projected to be approximately 6%.

The lending rate consists of inflation, of the margin, which is from the lending rate that the Central Bank sets (based on inflation) plus the Central Bank margin, plus the margin of all other banks that took money from the Central Bank, experts remind.

“In 2018, the market will grow by 25%. 1.36 million loans worth 2.53 trillion rubles will be issued. This will be the year of the client. All changes are only for the benefit of the borrower. Average offer rates for loans for the purchase of apartments on the primary and secondary markets decreased approximately equally by 2.2-2.3 percentage points. There was no pause in rate cuts in January, which is new. Usually there is a short pause in January. In December, the average rate on loans issued will tend to 8%. The decline will be uneven throughout the year. Stormy spring and calm autumn,” Sergei Gordeiko gave his forecast to the expert channel.

“Therefore, our economy is shaping up in such a way that the mortgage lending rate is 4% higher than inflation at 3.5-4%. That's a lot. I can say that even in the Czech Republic the mortgage rate is 4.5%. If you pay the required amount monthly for three years, then your rate drops to 4.25, then to 4.15, etc. Practically, this is the European level of lending. If we get there, and we are moving very quickly along the path of developing mortgage lending, then it will be a very big deal for our country. Because housing, work and wages, the development of a credit sales system are the main points on which everything now rests. And for the development of the housing system, a mortgage is needed, which is receiving more and more attention,” emphasized Elena Ivankina.

The question of when mortgages will become cheaper is important for both mortgage loan holders and potential borrowers. Today we note that rates are decreasing.

Very soon, 50% of Russian families will be able to afford to buy a home on credit: by 2021, rates could be reduced to 7%.

How the reduction of mortgage rates, on the one hand, and the abandonment of shared-equity construction, on the other, will change the mortgage lending market was discussed by the participants of the annual conference “Mortgage Lending in Russia.”

“The mortgage law was adopted in 1998. In the first year, 150 mortgage certificates were issued in Russia. Mortgage was a little unlucky: in 1998 there was a crisis, and already in 1999 only 17 mortgage certificates were issued.

At first, the media wrote that mortgages were an idea for the rich. Still would! After all, the rate reached 35%, and loans were issued only in dollars.

The real mortgage boom happened in 2005, with the adoption of a new edition of the Housing Code. From that moment on, mortgages began to grow and grew to the point that today they have become the foundation for the development of the construction industry,” she recalled discussion moderator, head of the “Real Estate” department of Bussines.FM radio Valeria Mozganova.

According to Head of the AHML Analytical Center Mikhail Goldberg, in the last year alone, the mortgage portfolio has grown to 5 trillion. rubles - by 13% compared to 2016. With the help of banks, it was possible to attract from 1.3 to 1.5 trillion rubles of citizens’ funds into the construction industry, the analyst noted.

Up to 70% of current borrowers, according to Goldberg, are families with children. More than half of them are over 30 years old. Almost 45% of all mortgage loans are loans using maternity capital.

According to AHML estimates, last year the population was issued 1.1 million mortgage loans worth about 2 trillion rubles. “There have never been such indicators. This is about 30% more in quantitative terms and almost 40% more in money than in 2016. Despite the fact that in 2016 the market was influenced by the government program for subsidizing mortgage rates. In 2017, the program stopped working, and the entire volume of issuance was provided exclusively by market factors, including an unprecedented reduction in mortgage rates,” the analyst noted

He emphasized that at the beginning of last year, rates in the market segment were at 13.5%, but by the end of the year they had fallen to 9.5%. This reduction in rates sharply reduced the loan payment - by almost 20%. “This not only increased the demand for mortgages, but improved the quality of the mortgage portfolio. People began to spend less money on servicing their mortgages, and it became easier for them to cope with their credit load. In such conditions, the likelihood that the borrower will not be able to pay the loan decreases sharply,” Goldberg emphasized.

The share of overdue loans for a period of more than three months is 2.3%. “The quality of the mortgage portfolio is approximately five times higher than for other non-mortgage loans,” he emphasized.

Since the middle of last year, a refinancing program has been added to the portfolio of all major banks. “So far it has not had an overwhelming impact on the mortgage market. However, we know that the overall mortgage portfolio is formed at an average rate of 12.5%. When the difference with current rates reaches 3%, you can be sure that this portfolio will be refinanced in the near future. The only question is how this will happen: banks will refinance each other’s portfolios, or large banks will begin to change the conditions for loans on their balance sheets. Next year, rates will continue to decline, the total volume of issuance will grow, and will amount to at least 2.5 trillion. rubles,” he says.

According to the forecasts of Anatoly Aksakov, Chairman of the State Duma Committee on the Financial Market, Chairman of the Council of the Association of Banks of Russia, mortgage rates could drop to 7% . At the end of last year, inflation was below the target of 4%, which was set by the Central Bank.

Nabiullina’s department has repeatedly stated that the difference between inflation and the key rate should be 2.5%. “That is, even if inflation in 2018 increases compared to last year, and will no longer be 2.5%, but 3-4%, the Central Bank’s key rate may well be at 6.5%. Accordingly, interest on loans, primarily housing ones, will decrease,” Aksakov explained.

According to recent AHML research, 45% of Russian families want to improve their living conditions. In the next 5 years, 8 million citizens will be able to take out a mortgage, Goldberg noted.
The development of mortgages has become the main point of the government strategy for the development of the housing sector until 2025, noted Maria Dormostuk, head of the department for implementing programs and priority projects to provide affordable housing at the Ministry of Construction of the Russian Federation.

According to the document, by 2025 mortgages should be available to 50% of Russian families. The number of housing loans should increase to 2 million annually, the volume of housing construction - from 80 to 120 million square meters per year, and the provision of housing to the population - from 25 to 30 square meters per person.

But, according to President of the Institute of Urban Economics Foundation Nadezhda Kosareva, it is unlikely that in reality everything will be as rosy as in the government’s forecasts. According to the expert, mortgages today are growing solely due to lower interest rates, but not due to rising incomes. In the first month of the past four years, household incomes stopped falling, and they are far from growing. And the likelihood that the key rate will be able to continue to hold its position gives Kosareva great doubts.

In addition, already now the number of new equity participation agreements (EPA) is practically not growing. That is, people did not buy more housing. It’s just that the housing that they bought yesterday with their own money is now being bought for credit money. The mortgage market is growing, but this does not at all indicate an increase in prosperity, Kosareva believes.

All housing affordability achieved through lowering mortgage rates is offset by rising housing prices, notes the IEG president. “In order for housing prices not to rise, supply must increase. But this is unlikely to happen in the context of the abandonment of shared-equity construction. Quite the contrary,” she believes.

According to Mozganova, as long as the old rules apply in housing construction, developers will try to bring as many properties to the market as possible. The population will take out loans to jump on the departing train. And then we are all in for a stupor and a protracted calm.

Very soon, sellers with mortgaged apartments will enter the secondary market, and we will also have to do something with them, create understandable mechanisms for them.

Restrictions on shared construction will make adjustments to housing prices and rates of loans issued for its purchase. Experts explain what changes to expect.

Throughout 2017, residential real estate borrowing rates declined. However, it would be easy for a consumer who would try to understand the prospects to become confused. Some advised to rush to take out a mortgage while it was cheaper, others, on the contrary, urged not to rush, promising a further reduction in rates.

It was also unclear how the market would react to the “ban” on shared construction. Some publicists predicted that there would be no more defrauded investors, but apartments and loans for their purchase would now become more expensive.

The decrease in mortgage rates in 2017 was due to the low rate of the Bank of Russia and low inflation, believes Finam analyst Timur Nigmatullin. As an expert told a Rosbalt correspondent, an increase in rates is unlikely in the coming years.

“Mortgage rates follow the indicative rates set by the Bank of Russia. If the Central Bank rate decreases, this naturally leads to a decrease in mortgage rates. But inflation also played a role. If inflation were high, and the Bank of Russia would at least reduce the rate, then market mortgage rates would not follow the Central Bank rate down, but would be correlated with inflation. But now inflation is 2.5% per annum, and the market very easily follows the Central Bank rate: both in mortgage loans and in deposit rates for individuals,” said Timur Nigmatullin.

According to the analyst, rumors about the upcoming rise in mortgage prices due to the cancellation of shared-equity construction are exaggerated. The obstacle to this is, among other things, the low income of the population.

“The law, which is sometimes called a ban on shared construction, in fact, is not such. There we are talking about the fact that during a three-year period, developers can decide that money will be received when concluding contracts with buyers of real estate under construction, not directly, but to a bank account, which will already lend to the developer, for example, for project financing.” , - Nigmatullin clarified.

However, the expert noted, a correction in the real estate market will be inevitable. “Now, if you buy real estate, for example, a one-room apartment, “on a foundation pit,” then by the end of construction it will cost 20-35% more. On the one hand, this is a gigantic profitability, which is higher than the profitability of many financial market instruments. On the other hand, such investment involves very high risks. When developers start selling real estate through banks, the risk will decrease, and banks, seeing a decrease in risk, will be able to issue loans at a lower interest rate. At the same time, the increase in demand due to lower mortgage rates is offset by a decrease in real incomes of the population, so restrictions on the market will remain,” the analyst said.

According to Timur Nigmatullin’s forecast, only small players who have discredited the primary real estate market and who are absolutely distrusted by banks will leave the development market: they will no longer be able to attract funds.

The reduction in mortgage lending rates is taking place in accordance with the general state of the Russian economy, he believes Head of the Center for Economic Research IGSO Vasily Koltashov. A stable oil price and a stable ruble allowed the Central Bank to reduce the rate.

“If oil prices go down and the ruble also goes down, then the Central Bank may return to its not very smart and ineffective policy of raising rates. In this case, he could cause serious harm to the Russian economy by simply repeating the actions of 2014. This possibility exists. But for now, the decrease in the price of a mortgage loan is due to an increase in the price of oil, with a global increase, albeit small, in business activity,” the expert clarified.

Vasily Koltashov noted that cheaper mortgages can attract more people to this area. But even more people will want to take out a mortgage if the president’s promises to subsidize loans of up to 6-7% for families with children are fulfilled.

“We must take into account that the crisis in the housing market has not passed. Prices are falling, and the state and the banks it encourages do not provide developers with more favorable loans and do not stimulate the real estate market and the construction sector. These are unfavorable trends for developers. However, a further reduction in the mortgage rate and subsidies could involve new segments of the population in lending, those who previously could not even think about buying an apartment, even a “Shuvalov” studio,” the expert explained. He believes that such measures would be natural as part of the continuation of the course towards changing Russian economic policy towards mercantilism.

Reduced mortgage rates this year occurred simultaneously with an increase in the number of loans issued, said Advisor to the Institute of Contemporary Development (INSOR) Nikita Maslennikov. As the expert said, these rates should be expected to stabilize in the coming year. “Last year the mortgage lending market was the undisputed leader in all retail banking. At the same time, an aggressive policy was pursued to reduce rates, the leader of which was, of course, Sberbank of the Russian Federation. I do not rule out that this also happened in connection with some political tasks set by the country’s leadership. President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly said that mortgage rates should be low,” recalled Nikita Maslennikov.

According to the INSOR advisor, such trends also carry certain risks - both for the real estate market and the financial sector, and for the economy as a whole.

“Many experts do not exclude that it is premature to talk about some kind of “bubble” in the mortgage market, but it would be useful and timely to moderate optimism. Still, mortgage loans are a burden on household budgets. Exactly the amount by which you will pay off interest on loans while managing this debt, you deduct from your household budget for current consumption. An effect may arise that by increasing mortgages, people simultaneously “squeeze” consumer demand in the economy as a whole. A certain redistribution is taking place, and in other segments demand may be reduced,” the expert emphasized.

Maslennikov believes that the announced refusal of shared construction is unlikely to seriously affect the price of mortgages. Another thing is the expected increase in inflation from the current 2.5% to 3.7%. “I don’t foresee any serious increase in mortgage rates. But they have dropped so much that they may stabilize this year. It is likely that they will stabilize at the current level and go into pause for a couple of quarters,” says the INSOR advisor.

The stabilization of mortgage prices will be accompanied by a decrease in the growth rate of mortgage lending, despite the increase in real wages of the population, Nikita Maslennikov is sure.

Reduced mortgage rates this year took place as part of the fight against inflation, he believes Director of the FBK Institute for Strategic Analysis Igor Nikolaev.

As the Doctor of Economic Sciences said, although rates have decreased, they should not be called low. "The main factor reduction in mortgage rates This was the reduction of the key rate by the Bank of Russia. It fell by more than 2 percentage points. Credit resources have become cheaper, and banks have the opportunity to reduce mortgage rates. That's what we observed. It is also clear why the key rate was reduced. The inflation target was met and even exceeded: instead of 4% for the year, we had 2.5%,” recalled Igor Nikolaev.

According to the economist, legislative innovations in shared construction are unlikely to seriously change the price of a mortgage. “Theoretically, mortgage rates could rise due to innovations associated with new financing and lending requirements. But I don't think it will be a significant increase. Rather, they will be quite stable. Current mortgage rates - 9% or slightly less than 10% - are still significantly higher than the level of inflation, which is and is predicted, and higher than the key rate. This means that mortgage rates have dropped compared to what they were a year or two ago. But when compared with the inflation rate and the key rate, these mortgage rates are not so low. This means that if they have potential for growth, it is not that significant. Therefore, rates will most likely remain at the same level,” believes Igor Nikolaev.

The Russian is once again promised stability, but, taught by bitter experience, he is waiting for the next crisis. The severity of economic laws is compensated by the non-binding nature of their implementation in Russia.

Anna Semenets, Dmitry Remizov

Participants in the annual conference “Mortgage Lending in Russia” discussed how the reduction in mortgage rates, on the one hand, and the abandonment of shared-equity construction, on the other, will change the mortgage lending market.

At first, the media wrote that mortgages were an idea for the rich. Still would! After all, the rate reached 35%, and loans were issued only in dollars. The real mortgage boom happened in 2005, with the adoption of a new edition of the Housing Code. From that moment on, mortgages began to grow and grew to the point that today they have become the foundation for the development of the construction industry,” recalled Valeria Mozganova, moderator of the discussion, head of the “Real Estate” department of Bussines.FM radio.

According to the head of the AHML analytical center, Mikhail Goldberg, in the last year alone the mortgage portfolio has grown to 5 trillion rubles - by 13% compared to 2016. With the help of banks, it was possible to attract from 1.3 to 1.5 trillion rubles of citizens’ funds into the construction industry, the analyst noted.

Up to 70% of current borrowers, according to Goldberg, are families with children. More than half of them are over 30 years old. Almost 45% of all mortgage loans are loans using maternity capital.

According to the forecasts of Anatoly Aksakov, Chairman of the State Duma Committee on the Financial Market, Chairman of the Board of the Association of Banks of Russia, mortgage rates may drop to 7%. At the end of last year, inflation was below the target of 4%, which was set by the Central Bank. Nabiullina’s department has repeatedly stated that the difference between inflation and the key rate should be 2.5%. “That is, even if inflation in 2018 increases compared to last year, and will no longer be 2.5%, but 3-4%, the Central Bank’s key rate may well be at 6.5%. Accordingly, interest on loans, primarily housing ones, will decrease,” Aksakov explained.

But, according to Nadezhda Kosareva, president of the Institute of Urban Economics Foundation, it is unlikely that in reality everything will be as rosy as in the government’s forecasts. According to the expert, mortgages today are growing solely due to lower interest rates, but not due to rising incomes. In the first month of the past four years, household incomes stopped falling, and they are far from growing. And the likelihood that the key rate will be able to continue to hold its position gives Kosareva great doubts.

Very soon, sellers with mortgaged apartments will enter the secondary market, and we will also have to do something with them, create understandable mechanisms for them.

Anna Semenets

Will mortgage interest rates drop? Why you shouldn't take out a mortgage. Economic factors that may affect the percentage

Economic factors that may affect the percentage

What mortgage rate is expected in 2019

Possible risks associated with rate cuts in 2019

Conclusion

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